EXPLORE

Article

Cybersecurity Trends: What We Saw in 2020, What We Expect to See in 2021

Cybersecurity Trends

Where change seems a constant, perhaps the biggest and most surprising cybersecurity issue of 2020 was a lack of change. But before we get to that, let’s look at some other key cybersecurity trends.

A continued rise in ransomware attacks

Kidnapping data and holding networks hostage remains a lucrative “business.” In the past year, the number of groups exfiltrating data for double extortion schemes has risen from two to 27.

With so many new entrants on the playing field, it may not come as much of a surprise that Arete saw the number of cases involving data exfil increase by a factor of six from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020.

As data exfiltration became a “common norm” by mid-2020, cyber burglars started to pay closer attention to the data they stole. It was a calculated move that often paid off.

After exfiltrating and encrypting a company’s data, they not only demanded ransoms for decryption, but also applied additional pressure for payments by threatening to sell or post the stolen information to leak sites, also referred to as “double-extortion.” Quite often, in either a blog post or during ransomware negotiations, they would provide specific files — which may have contained social security numbers, credit card information, or even, GDPR-regulated information on EU citizens — as “proof of exfiltration.”

While Maze successfully blazed the leak-site “shaming” trail back in 2019, multiple variants followed suit. By late summer 2020, the trend had evolved even further. Smaller variants were teaming with larger groups to reap the benefits of hosting files on established blog sites.

Big or small, all companies live or die by their reputation. If a single negative online review can get customers second-guessing, imagine the potential damage when a company needs to notify its customers of the theft and sale of their personally identifiable information (PII).

And sure, ransomware attacks on larger companies may get more press coverage, but it’s especially noteworthy that threat actors are increasingly targeting small- to medium-sized businesses (SMBs). According to ConnectWise’s “The State of SMB Cybersecurity in 2020” report, 55 percent of SMBs experienced a cyberattack in 2020. At Arete, we saw attacks on SMBs increase by a factor of three over the course of the year.

In 2021, there’s little doubt these numbers will continue to rise. We can expect threat actors to continue to focus on unpatched, under-secured SMB networks — especially as it’s no secret that the SMB market lacks the resources to pour into cybersecurity to protect the perimeter.

Often, these businesses don’t even have IT staff let alone the in-house security skills to defend against these types of threats. In short, they’re sitting ducks, hamstrung for many reasons, not least of which is an inability to make timely, informed decisions. Attackers know all of this, and they exploit weaknesses primarily for monetary gain.

Remote access compromises more than doubled

The COVID-19 pandemic certainly added its own twist to cybersecurity. With government mandates to shutter physical offices, many organizations had to adapt quickly to connect their workforce remotely. For some, this meant upgrading their VPN appliances. For others, it required implementing net-new remote access.

In both scenarios, the haste of implementation and upgrades created a metaphorical candy store for cybercriminals to ransack. Loads of misconfigurations, disabling of multifactor authentication (MFA) services, and phishing attacks added to the stress of an already chaotic time. For example, in the cases Arete worked last year, more than 90 percent of clients did not have MFA in place.


For SMBs, average ransom demands tripled, and payments doubled last year. In 2021, we expect more of the same. Ransomware groups will continue to increase attacks on the SMB market while also raising ransom demands and joining forces with other cybercrime groups to wreak maximum damage.

Threat actors stole and publicly released private red team tools

On November 11, 2020, Bleeping Computer published an article stating that someone had allegedly stolen and leaked the source code for the popular post-exploitation framework Cobalt Strike. The leak was identified from a GitHub account, which anyone could access and download.

Cobalt Strike itself is designed with optimum stealth. Essentially, when the program runs on an endpoint, it loads into the computer’s memory and “calls home” (aka beacons). When the command-and-control (C2) server establishes a connection, the attacker can perform any number of actions on the infected system without leaving much, if any, trace of activity.

Cobalt Strike’s stealth evades a large majority of AV products and even, some EDR solutions; and because forensic data is not captured when attackers use Cobalt Strike, it’s difficult to recreate their activity. Arete has observed attackers leveraging Cobalt Strike to move laterally within the environment, establish persistence, harvest credentials, and exfiltrate data.

An interesting observation and point of correlation: Since the source code was posted publicly, downloads from GitHub were anonymous. However, it’s also important to note that while many popular groups — such as Maze (no longer operating), Wasted Locker, Egregor, and Conti — leveraged Cobalt Strike prior to November 11, 2020, Lockbit emerged as the only group that did not leverage it prior to November 11. Given the publicity and strength of Cobalt Strike, we can expect to see wider adoption and use of the post-exploitation framework throughout 2021.


It’s common knowledge that many organizations purchase cyber insurance policies; and now, cyber thieves will explicitly look to target such organizations. On the off chance they find and steal cyber policies, they can use that information to set the ransom price accordingly — and they don’t care how new a policy is. If they obtain an older policy, they most likely know that the monetary coverage amount should still apply, which can then make ransom negotiations that much more difficult.

Most will state up front, “We know the coverage limit is $1 million and we won’t accept less than $900,000. You can use the remaining $100,000 for your legal fees.” The problem with these kinds of assumptions is that, nearly 100 percent of the time, they’re incorrect. Threat actors have minimal understanding of the insurance business and how to read policies. The reality is that there is very little money left to play with.

This trend will continue in 2021, with these groups increasing pressure on victim organizations by searching for sensitive information and cyber policies and contacting and harassing victims or clients of victims via phone or email.

A bigger issue for SMBs: overall cybersecurity

Though ransomware will continue to plague SMBs, these types of attacks are just a symptom of the market’s overall cybersecurity issues. Consequently, because so many SMBs lack security resources, it may be time for them to consider outsourcing. Managed detection and response (MDR) services can offer a cost-effective option that would allow them to re-focus on their core competencies while leaving defense to those with the requisite skills and experience.

At Arete, if we’ve heard it once, we’ve heard it a thousand times. Incident after incident, it’s the same story. A client calls about a breach and as soon as we hear what security products and configurations are in place, we know their next words before they can say them. The “script” goes something like this:

VICTIM

IT received a call that our sales team couldn’t access their email. When IT logged into the Exchange server, they found all the files with a random extension and a readme.txt ransom note.

ARETE

Do you have RDP enabled for external access? Essentially, if I were working from home, could I use RDP to connect to the network? Also, is the file extension different on every system? Does the readme note contain a reference to TOR browser?

VICTIM

Yes. Yes, to all.

ARETE

That’s most likely Sodinokibi ransomware. We will confirm it once we receive the ransom note.

To be frank, we haven’t seen any real change in most points of entry or password usage, not only in 2020, but since the 90s. It’s time to rewrite the script. Most SMB IT technology implementations date back to the early 2000s, and the market hasn’t seen the need to upgrade or enhance security since. RDP is one of the easiest remote access technologies to implement, yet the hardest to secure. Without SMBs putting an emphasis on security, “technologies from the 90s” will continue to be used — and exploited.

Too often, companies with thousands of endpoints will not have an endpoint detection and response (EDR) solution. They may have the latest security technologies in place, but ones that threat actors easily bypass. The toughest aspect of having a threat actor bypass a security product is explaining to clients that the relabeling of their antivirus (AV) product to an endpoint product was just marketing. An AV product isn’t tamperproof. And once attackers gain domain or local administrator privileges, they will disrupt the AV service, unloading virus definitions, disabling the service, whitelisting a folder where they plan to store their tools, and even, uninstalling the product.

By contrast, a true EDR tool will not hook into Active Directory and can’t be uninstalled, disabled, or unloaded by a domain administrator. Rather, only the central console can control the EDR tool. If you’re having doubts about that last statement, take a look at Gartner’s Peer Insights on EDR tools. The reviews may surprise you.

Cybersecurity requires more than technology

The right technology is crucial and can give you a leg up, but it doesn’t replace the experience, talent, and know-how to implement that technology. Again, service delivery will become increasingly important in 2021. In this regard, companies need to: 1) establish and follow the proper protocols in response to attacks; and 2) never cease to innovate and become more relentless in leveraging early warning systems, utilizing threat intelligence, and integrating automation.

A consistent commonality across SMBs is that, while they have successful businesses, they lack documented policy specifically around disaster recovery, responding to computer security events, and general security-leading practices. Managed service providers can work with SMBs to build and enhance security-focused programs to mitigate threats against their organizations. They can apply knowledge they’ve gained from the large Fortune 500 company engagements into a practical format that is easily integrated into SMB business operations.

What’s more, managed services providers should work with their industry partners, current clients, and former clients to “pulse check” the security landscape to identify common challenges — like the need for faster access to intelligence and faster identification and remediation of threats. They should also be able to integrate open-source intelligence with security know-how to deliver actionable information. For example, when mass access or major vulnerabilities are posted to hacker forums, it’s critical to work with partners to respond, threat hunt, and secure client networks before threat actors can exploit access.

Stronger government focus on cyberattacks

Between the COVID-19 pandemic, ransomware groups’ change of tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), and their increased awareness of stolen data, 2020 was a year ripe with challenges.

In 2021, while we’re likely to see more new challenges, we can also expect to see a stronger government focus on cyberattacks, specifically ransomware. We will also see greater government engagement with municipalities, school districts, and healthcare organizations to prevent cyberattacks on these critical services.

Just as Arete IR is trying to stop cyberattacks from occurring, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) recently rolled out a new campaign to help grow awareness and fight the increasing ransomware threat. CISA’s intention is to reduce or outright prevent ransomware attacks by equipping organizations with the necessary knowledge and expertise to detect cyberattacks earlier.

In short, a glimmer of hope for better days ahead.

Back to Blog Posts

Article

Attack Patterns in Settra Incidents

Recent Settra ransomware incidents demonstrate a consistent operational pattern involving compromised credentials, VPN access, and the deployment of ransomware executables tailored to victim environments. Researchers have observed Settra naming ransomware executables after the targeted organization's domain while following similar attack sequences across multiple intrusions. Arete has also identified overlapping tactics, techniques, and tools in Settra engagements observed from June to August, including the use of MeshAgent for remote access and Bring Your Own Vulnerable Driver (BYOVD) techniques to weaken endpoint security controls. 

What’s Notable and Unique 

  • Settra operators have been observed naming ransomware executables after the victim organization's domain, creating a direct association between the payload and the targeted environment.

  • Initial access vectors have included targeting exposed VPN infrastructure and the use of compromised credentials, reducing the need for traditional exploitation of vulnerabilities.

  • Arete observed MeshAgent in multiple Settra engagements, which provides threat actors with a mechanism for remote access and continued activity within compromised environments.

  • Settra engagements have also included Bring Your Own Vulnerable Driver (BYOVD) activity, which can be used to bypass or impair security controls by abusing legitimate but vulnerable drivers.

Analyst Comments

Recent Settra activity demonstrates how ransomware operators can combine credential-based access, remote management tooling, and security control evasion techniques to establish and maintain access before ransomware deployment. The repeated use of similar tools and operational patterns across incidents provides useful detection opportunities for defenders. Organizations should closely monitor VPN authentication activity, unusual use of compromised credentials, unexpected MeshAgent deployment, ransomware executables with victim-specific naming conventions, and suspicious driver activity associated with attempts to disable or bypass endpoint security controls.

Arete’s MDR practice detects Settra’s full attack chain, with special attention to the staging of BYOVD activity for defense evasion. However, for us to detect it, SentinelOne needs to be fully deployed across an environment. To support organizations with full deployment, Arete offers SentinelOne Deployment Assistance. This service is designed to ensure that SentinelOne is deployed across all eligible endpoints, eliminating coverage gaps that could otherwise expose the organization to ransomware, malware, credential theft, and other advanced threats. Through endpoint discovery, inventory reconciliation, and deployment assistance, Arete helps organizations achieve comprehensive protection and maximize the effectiveness of their SentinelOne investment. Contact clientcares@areteir.com to learn more.

Sources

  • Ready, Settra, Go: New Settra Ransomware Variant Deploys MeshAgent RMM

Article

AI Agents Used in Campaign Against PaperCut

In late August, a threat actor used hundreds of AI agents to develop and launch a global exploitation campaign targeting vulnerable PaperCut NG and MF servers. PaperCut is print management software, and researchers determined that the operation compromised at least 440 PaperCut instances linked to 395 distinct organizations across 48 countries. The AI agents were tasked with building, testing, and refining exploits for CVE-2026-81578 and CVE-2026-82078 both security flaws affecting PaperCut software and flagged as actively exploited earlier this month.  It is currently unclear if the threat actor is solely focused on access development to be handed off to other affiliated actors, or if they will directly leverage their access to achieve follow-on objectives such as data theft or ransomware deployment.

What’s Notable and Unique

  • Researchers observed three attack paths following the exploitation of vulnerable PaperCut servers. Threat actors would harvest credentials from LSASS memory and registry secrets to perform pass-the-hash attacks, leverage older unpatched Windows vulnerabilities (CVE-2021-42278 and CVE-2021-42287) to escalate privileges in unpatched environments, or, in some cases, directly add newly created accounts to the Domain Admins group when PaperCut was running with domain-level privileges.


  • Upon achieving remote code execution and credential harvesting within a self-hosted lab environment, the threat actor deployed hundreds of AI-powered agents that leveraged OpenAI Codex, DeepSeek models, and publicly available offensive security tools, including Mimikatz, SharpHound, Certipy, Rubeus, and Impacket, to automate reconnaissance, exploitation, and post-compromise activities. The attackers subsequently used a DCSync attack to obtain a database dump containing domain credentials. 

Analyst Comments

The observed activity demonstrates how threat actors are increasingly leveraging AI and large language models (LLMs) to accelerate cyber operations at unprecedented speed and scale. In this campaign, the adversary progressed from exploit development to remote code execution within hours and, in some cases, achieved Domain Administrator privileges in as little as five minutes. The AI-assisted workflow enabled rapid reconnaissance, exploitation, credential theft, privilege escalation, and lateral movement, allowing the compromise of multiple organizations within seconds. This activity highlights the growing threat posed by AI-enabled adversaries capable of conducting large-scale intrusions with greater efficiency and operational velocity. Organizations affected by the PaperCut vulnerabilities are strongly advised to apply the latest security updates and implement the vendor's recommended mitigation measures to reduce the risk of compromise and unauthorized access. 

Sources

  • Agents Gone Wild: An AI-Orchestrated Global Campaign Against PaperCut NG/MF 

  • AI-powered attack exploited PaperCut flaws to hack 395 organizations 

  • PaperCut Attacker Uses Hundreds of AI Agents to Compromise 440+ Instances 

Article

Adversarial AI Evolves from Prompting to Autonomous Attack Workflows

Cybercriminals and state-linked threat actors are increasingly incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into multiple stages of offensive operations. Rather than relying on AI only for content generation or research, threat actors are now consistently using it to support reconnaissance, vulnerability discovery, credential theft, malware development, social engineering, and activities following initial compromise. The growing use of automated and agent-based workflows is allowing adversaries to coordinate offensive malicious activities with less manual involvement, potentially increasing the speed, scale, and efficiency of future campaigns.

What’s Notable and Unique

  •  In one observed campaign, threat actors used AI to plan, build, and conduct an automated credential-harvesting operation within just several hours, demonstrating how compromised infrastructure can be rapidly repurposed to support larger-scale malicious activity.

  • Arete has observed several threat groups using AI-assisted capabilities to facilitate the analysis of data obtained during exfiltration so far this year, including INC Ransom, FulcrumSec, and Settra.

  • Attackers are also attempting to reproduce proprietary AI capabilities. Large-scale automated prompting campaigns have been used to extract information about the behavior and capabilities of proprietary AI models. The use of numerous accounts and intermediary infrastructure can make these activities more difficult to identify and attribute.

Analyst Comments

AI is increasingly becoming an operational component in the threat landscape rather than simply a tool that improves attacker productivity. By connecting reconnaissance, development, credential operations, and other activities through automated workflows, threat actors can conduct campaigns more quickly and reduce reliance on continuous human input. This trend also impacts security requirements for organizations deploying AI technologies. AI models, development environments, cloud resources, identities, repositories, and automated workflows should increasingly be considered interconnected elements of the enterprise attack surface, and organizations should maintain visibility across these areas and ensure that security controls account for both conventional threats and AI-enabled attack techniques.

Sources

  • GTIG AI Threat Tracker: From Prompting to Autonomy – The Evolution of Adversarial AI

Article

Top 9 Security Controls for SMBs

In today’s complex cyber threat landscape, small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) should implement a layered, multi-pronged approach to security. Here are some proven, effective controls to consider:

1.        Implement MFA for All Users
Multi-factor authentication (MFA) is an effective and accessible way to protect sensitive data, comply with regulatory standards, and prevent unauthorized access to critical systems. By ensuring that users not only use a password but also a secure token, an organization can significantly reduce phishing attempts, credential stuffing attacks, and ransomware incidents. MFA should be enabled for email, VPN, and critical system access.

2.        Update Patch Management Programs
A modern patching program should include policies and mechanisms to manage software updates in a timely manner. Patching efforts should address not just operating system updates, but also commonly utilized software within the environment. An active patching plan aims to reduce the mean time to patch and provide metrics on existing patch efforts. In the event of a high-severity vulnerability, a mature patching program should also be able to identify the risks and exposure for a given set of systems based on the average time to patch. This helps stakeholders make informed decisions when a new exploit is released.

3.        Leverage a Properly Managed Endpoint Detection and Response (EDR) Tool
With real-time threat detection and advanced visibility, endpoint detection and response (EDR) solutions can enhance an organization’s ability to detect and investigate potential malicious activity, including ransomware, lateral movement, fileless attacks, and more. Effective management of EDR should include proper configuration, regular agent updates, and established procedures for responding to alerts.

4.        Enhance EDR with Frontline Incident Intelligence
While EDR solutions are an important component of a security program, threat actors are continually adapting their techniques to evade detection, and as a result, standard detection methods may not always identify emerging threats or novel attack behaviors. To strengthen protection, organizations can supplement EDR tools with custom detection rules informed by incident response data. These rules can help identify indicators of compromise observed during cyber incidents, providing an additional layer of visibility beyond traditional detections.

Arete Bloktd℠ illustrates this approach by transforming threat intelligence and malware analysis into curated detection rules for EDR tools. Applying frontline intelligence to security tools can result in earlier detection, less investigative burden, and a more confident response. 

5.        Create and Continuously Test an Incident Response (IR) Plan
An incident response plan can help an organization effectively identify, respond to, and recover from a cybersecurity incident while minimizing disruption and downtime. An IR plan defines clear roles, escalation paths, communication strategies, and decision frameworks for both internal and external teams. To be effective, these plans should be regularly tested with post-incident reviews or tabletop exercises involving key stakeholders.

6.        Maintain Encrypted and Tested Data Backups
In the case of a cyberattack, backups can help organizations maintain business continuity, support ransom negotiations with threat actors, and contribute to a timely and successful recovery. Encrypting backups makes it more difficult for threat actors to access or alter them, and regular testing ensures they remain accessible during a security incident.

7.        Conduct Employee Security Awareness Training
Human error is a leading cause of cybersecurity incidents, and an organization’s employees are its first line of defense against cyber threats. Security awareness training reinforces the importance of data confidentiality, supports regulatory compliance, and helps employees recognize and understand red flags such as suspicious emails, malicious links, and social engineering attempts.

8.        Assess and Address Existing Risk and Vulnerabilities
To maintain a proactive approach to risk management and improve resilience, organizations should regularly assess existing vulnerabilities through expert-led Vulnerability Assessments, Penetration Testing, and Threat Hunting Assessments. These exercises can help identify security gaps, support regulatory compliance, and prevent potential incidents. During remediation, prioritize high-impact vulnerabilities and make a plan for periodic assessments.

9.        Apply Least-Privilege Access Controls
Employees should have access only to the systems, applications, and data necessary to perform their jobs. By removing unnecessary administrative privileges and regularly reviewing user permissions, organizations can reduce the risk of unauthorized access and limit the damage caused by compromised accounts or insider threats.

Organizations should regularly review their cybersecurity programs, stay informed about emerging threats, and evaluate whether their security controls are adapting to the evolving threat landscape.